Global Trade Report 2022

2022-09-08 16:19

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The main factors that are driving the Global Trade Management Market are increasing volumes of international trade, emerging trends in digitalization, and regulations and government compliances, which will contribute to the growth of trade management markets globally in the coming years. Global total goods trade is expected to grow 4.7% - approaching $6 trillion in 2022 from 2021. Overall, trade is expected to hit $28tn this year, a 23% increase from 2020, and an 11% increase from pre-#COVID19 levels.

For example, according to the World Trade Organisation, global goods trade is expected to grow 8.0 percent in 2021. The report shows that the majority of economic sectors registered significant increases in their trade values from the previous year to Q1 2022. The UNCTADs World Trade Update, published July 7, shows the value of world trade rose to a record high of $7.7 trillion in Q1 2022, about $1 trillion more than in Q1 2021.

IHS Markit forecasts year-on-year growth of global real trade by 12.6% in 2021 (previously, +8.5%), and 4.3% in 2022. GTASs forecasting model projects that the real value of global trade will rise to $20,175 billion in 2021 and $21,038 billion in 2022. The projected CAGR of the global trade volume is 2.8% for the period 2021-30 and 2.7% over the period 2022-35 (an increase of +0.4% and +0.5%, respectively, from prior publication results). The global merchandise trade volume projection would rise to 15.2 billion metric tons in 2021 and 15.8 billion metric tons in 2022 (significantly higher than our previous forecast for 2020).

The global cargo forwarding market is projected to grow from $180.66 billion in 2021 to $191.71 billion in 2022, with a 6.1 percent annual compound growth rate (CAGR). The increase in international trade volumes is expected to drive the growth of the global freight forwarding market going forward. The Geneva-based agency predicts global trade growth will increase by up to 3.4% in 2023, noting both 2022 and 2023 estimates are less certain than normal because of uncertainties over the Russian-Ukrainian War. The rest of the world's trade evolution for 2022 is likely to be affected by slower-than-expected economic growth, due to rising interest rates, inflationary pressures, and concerns over the sustainability of debts in many economies, the report said.

For the remainder of the year, UNCTAD has projected slower growth in the world's goods trade, but a more positive trend in services, although from a lower baseline. This snap report finds world trade declining by 1 percent, with a 0.7 percent decline in world GDP and a one percent decline in low-income countries' GDP. UNCTADs World Trade Update puts the global traded goods value at $5.6 trillion for Q3 of this year, setting new record highs, and services value around $1.5 trillion. From a regional perspective, the trade increase was still not uniform during the first half of the year, UNCTADs Global Trade Update said but had a wide range over the next three months.


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